Philippines Vital Statistic Drop – Death Data Precisely Tracks 2019 Deaths. Birth Rates Are Dropping.

SuperSally888 over at Substack has put together a detailed analysis of birth and death data from the Philippines that’s now available, encompassing figures for January – June 2022:

Philippines Vital Statistic Drop Jan-Aug 2022, as of 30 Sept 2022, Released 8th Dec 2022. Jan-June Data Appears Relatively Complete. Death Data Precisely Tracks 2019 Deaths. Birth Rates Are Dropping.

PSA has a new data drop as of 8th December 2022. Data is set out in figures for easy review. Only the Jan to June data appears to be relatively complete. July to August should be disregarded as incomplete.

March to June death data nearly exactly matches the 2019 death data. Never mind that the large excess deaths from 2021 should have been compensated in 2022, had the cause of those excess deaths been removed.

Birth data appears similarly incomplete. The Jan to March slight rise in registered births has been followed by a drop and a flattening in registered births from April to June 2022. March 2022 data nearly exactly matched March 2021 data (22.6% drop since March 2019). April 2022 saw a drop in births of 6% compared to 2021 and 27.4% since April 2019 (1,216 fewer babies / day compared to 2019). May 2022 saw a drop in births of 13% compared to 2021 and 30% since May 2019 (1,359 fewer babies/day compared to 2019). June 2022 saw a drop in births of 12% compared to 2021 and 28.4% since June 2019 (1,265 fewer babies/day compared to 2019).

The regular birth pattern, rising in May, did not happen in 2022. Comparing Jan-June 2019 with 2022, there are just over 206,000 fewer births. If this trend continues, 2022 looks set for even lower overall births than 2021.

Comparing 2022 and 2021 data drops for vital statistics shows quite different patterns of data presentation. 2022 appears to show quite delayed data presentation. 2019 deaths and births are shown for reference on the 2022 charts.

Cause of Death (COD) data was also dropped using the same total deaths as presented in the vital statistics. PSA compare “complete” 2021 data for Jan to August with incomplete 2022 data for Jan to August (July & particularly August as already shown are very incomplete). It is not valid to compare complete and incomplete data, and no conclusions can be drawn based on raw data. Of course, all the of the 2022 incomplete raw data will be lower than the 2021 data!

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