“Democratic House Majority (or a Tie) Coming Soon? A Simple Plan to Prevent It”
The Republican majority in the US House of Representatives is at risk of becoming a one-seat Democratic majority (or a tie) if US House Representative Elise Stefanik is confirmed by the Senate (and she vacates her seat to become the UN Ambassador) before it is known who is elected in the April 1st special elections to replace the two Republican House Reps who have resigned (after being nominated to President Trump’s Administration). If Rep Stefanik resigns her House seat before the special election results in Florida are known—and the Democrats win both elections–there will be an equal number of Democrats to Republicans in the House. A special election to fill Rep Stefanik’s vacant seat would then determine which party controls the House.
The simplest way to prevent a tie (or the possibility of a one-seat Democratic majority in the House) is for the Senate to delay Rep Stefanik’s confirmation vote until after the results of the April 1st House special elections are known. If only one of the Florida special elections goes Republican, the Democrats mathematically can’t win the House majority as long as Rep Stefanik is still in her House seat. Rep Stefanik could also agree to stay in the House after she is confirmed. She could agree not to vacate her seat if doing so would endanger the House Republican majority.
Representative Stefanik’s nomination has not been confirmed by the US Senate. She must be confirmed to become UN Ambassador. Please call Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune and all Republican Senators. Ask them to delay Rep Stefanik’s confirmation vote until after the results of the April 1st special elections are known to prevent a possible tie (or a one seat Democratic House majority). Senator John Thune determines when the confirmation vote will happen. The Congressional switchboard number is (202) 224-3121. They can transfer you to the office of any Representative or Senator. https://www.senate.gov/senators/ contains the name and party of all Senators. Consider calling Rep Stefanik and House Speaker Mike Johnson. Ask Rep Stefanik to delay vacating her seat until after the results of the April 1st House elections are known to protect the House majority. Contact President Trump at https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/ and ask him to temporarily withdraw his nomination of Rep Stefanik for UN Ambassador until after the results of the April 1st special elections are known.
Here is the current House breakdown. The Republicans currently control the House majority with 218 seats (2 seats are vacant) to the Democrats 215 seats. If Rep Stefanik vacates her seat, the count would be 217 for Republicans to 215 for Democrats. This is very slim margins to get legislation passed.
If the Democrats win the two special elections on April 1st (after Rep Stefanik vacates her seat), the House would be a tie. Add two for the Democrats total and subtract one Republican and the count becomes 217 to 217. I do not know who would control the House, but a vote that ends in a tie fails.
If Rep Stefanik does not vacate her seat; and the Republicans lose both Florida elections, the seat count would then be 218 Republicans to 217 Democrats. Rep Stefanik would just continue to serve in the House to prevent her seat from having to be replaced in an election which could result in a Democratic majority.
If Rep Stefanik vacates her seat and the Republicans lose the two Florida House special elections; and the Republicans later lose the election to replace Rep Stefanik, the count will then be 218 Democrats to 217 Republicans. The Democrats would then have a one seat majority. They could have multiple hearings investigating President Trump and block his agenda.
Rep Stefanik must not vacate her House seat until after the special elections in Florida happen on April 1st. If only one of the two special elections in Florida goes Republican, she can resign because the Republican majority is assured.
House Reps cannot be replaced by appointment. They stay vacant until they are replaced by elections.
When US ambassador positions are vacant, it is common for a senior official to assume the duties. This could be done while Rep Stefanik awaits to take the position.
If Rep Stefanik does not vacate her seat until after the special elections happen in Florida, the Republicans will have more wiggle room to get legislation passed until the April 1st special elections. If Rep Stefanik vacates her seat now the count would be 217 seats Republicans to 215 Democrats. With her it is 218 to 215.
Rep Stefanik vacating her seat before the special elections happen in Florida would allow the Democrats to fund raise on the platform that they can get a majority (or a tie) in the House. Billionaires will give millions of dollars to the Democrats. I covered this in my last article on DailyClout.io that can be read here.
Republicans have lost a majority in stand-alone elections before. The Democrats won two Senate races in Georgia to give the Democrats a majority in the Senate in January of 2021 with the backing of Billionaire Nicole Shanahan.
No election is “safe.” Last November, a bomb threat directed at the Orange County California counting center (where they were counting at least three US House races) resulted in the lawyers and observers being ordered out, but no one else. The video feed went down. Two white vans drove into the building. Then 4 out of 5 House seats in Orange County went Democrat in a traditional Republican stronghold. Additionally, the Democrats just flipped an Iowa senate legislature seat in a district that Trump won in November by 21 points.
Rep Stefanik should stay in her House seat until it is known the House majority is safe. Once it is safe, she can be confirmed and become the UN Ambassador.
References
https://ballotpedia.org/Special_elections_to_the_119th_United_States_Congress_(2025-2026)
https://heritageaction.com/blog/filling-vacancies-in-the-119th-congress
https://www.cnn.com/politics/narrow-house-majority-congress-dg/index.html
https://www.quora.com/Who-breaks-a-tie-in-the-House-of-Representatives
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/senate-majority-leader-thune-reason-he-trump-working-together
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/21/nx-s1-5258523/trump-cabinet-picks-elise-stefanik-confirmation-hearing
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/11/still-no-word-why-white-vans-showed-up/
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/12/california-certifies-its-2024-election-despite-huge-issues/
https://democrats.org/news/icymi-democrats-flip-trump-21-iowa-senate-seat/
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/georgia-certifies-democrats-warnock-and-ossoffs-senate-wins
https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artII-S2-C2-3-1/ALDE_00013092/
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