“Transgender Identity Shows Signs of Social Contagion, Not Biology”

As more evidence surfaces, it’s becoming increasingly clear that transgender identity is less a matter of biology and more a product of social contagion. For years, activists and sympathetic institutions have insisted that transgender individuals are simply “born that way.” But current research suggests that this claim does not hold up under scientific scrutiny.

According to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5), gender dysphoria is a rare condition involving “a significant and persistent incongruence between an individual’s experienced gender and their biological sex.” In these rare cases, there is legitimate debate over medical intervention versus psychological therapy.

However, the problem is not limited to those who genuinely experience gender dysphoria. The issue now centers around a growing population of adolescents and young adults swept up in a cultural movement that celebrates gender nonconformity as social currency — often leading to irreversible medical decisions.

Mounting Evidence of a Social Phenomenon

In a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, evolutionary biologist Colin Wright summarized compelling data showing that transgender identification has plummeted after years of meteoric rise.

“If transgender identity were innate, like left-handedness,” Wright explained, “we would expect identification rates to rise when it became socially acceptable, then plateau. Instead, we’re seeing a spike followed by a sharp decline — a hallmark of social contagion.”

Wright cited studies showing that:

Transgender identification among U.S. college students dropped 50% between 2023 and 2025, according to University of Buckingham’s Eric Kaufmann.

Psychologist Jean Twenge found a similar 50% decline among 18- to 22-year-olds between 2022 and 2024.

Twenge concluded that “the peak of trans identification is in the past.”

These findings track with similar international data. An English study reported a 3,000% increase in recorded gender dysphoria between 2011 and 2021, followed by a noticeable decline. A German study further found that most youth who received a gender-related diagnosis no longer met the criteria after five years.

In other words, the pattern mirrors a cultural fad more than a fixed human trait.

“Nonbinary” Labels: A Social Construction, Not a Biological Reality

Wright argues that nonbinary identities — terms like “genderfluid,” “demiboy,” or “two-spirit” — are sociological, not physiological. Unlike handedness or sexual orientation, these labels have no measurable biological correlate.

“Nonbinary identities,” Wright notes, “are conceptual and political, not anatomical — and they rise and fall with cultural trends.”

Indeed, survey data show a sharp decline in nonbinary identification since 2023, indicating that the movement may have reached its cultural saturation point.

The Activist Argument Falters

Transgender activists continue to claim, even in court cases like Talbott v. Trump (2025), that transgender identity is immutable — as intrinsic as eye color. Yet no robust scientific evidence supports that claim.

Wright points out that the supposed biological markers — brain scans, hormone studies, and genetic analyses — are riddled with small sample sizes, unreplicated results, and confounding factors such as sexual orientation or hormone therapy.

“The notion that transgender identity is biologically hard-wired,” Wright concludes, “cannot explain why identification surged twentyfold in just fifteen years.”

Ideology Over Evidence

When confronted with these findings, activist circles often default to moral outrage instead of scientific rebuttal. Anyone questioning their narrative is labeled “transphobic” — not because of hate, but because the facts have turned against them.

As Wright wrote, “The social contagion hypothesis was never hateful. It simply recognized that social and cultural factors shape behavior.”

And yet, the “affirmation” model — built on the premise of innate gender identity — has become a billion-dollar medical industry, reliant on surgeries, puberty blockers, and lifelong hormone treatments. Meanwhile, the more cautious and humane alternative — psychotherapy — remains politically taboo.

Following the Money — and the Incentives

The medical-industrial complex thrives on recurring patients, not cured ones. A child placed on puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones becomes a patient for life, generating immense revenue streams for pharmaceutical and surgical industries.

It’s no wonder that questioning the orthodoxy threatens powerful interests. If the social contagion hypothesis is correct, then entire medical protocols have been built on sand.

The Peak Is Over

As Wright and other researchers suggest, transgender identification may already be in decline. The trend’s rise and fall mirror those of past cultural manias — brief, intense, and socially reinforced.

“The surge in transgender identification,” Wright concludes, “was not the revelation of a hidden biological truth, but a social phenomenon shaped by imitation, ideology, and institutional reinforcement.”

Well said. The science is catching up to what common sense already told us: biology is real, culture is powerful, and social contagions — no matter how fashionable — eventually burn out.