U.S. Oil Production Hits Record 13.6 Million Barrels Per Day
The United States reached an all-time high of 13.6 million barrels of crude oil per day in July 2025, according to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. This milestone, up from 13.5 million barrels per day in June, exceeded earlier projections and led the agency to revise its forecasts upward for both 2025 and 2026.
The EIA now expects U.S. crude oil production to average 13.5 million b/d through 2026, reflecting gains of 100,000 b/d in 2025 and 200,000 b/d in 2026 compared to prior forecasts. Offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico has played a major role, with new projects ramping up faster than anticipated.
Global Oil Markets and Price Outlook
The EIA projects rising global crude oil inventories through 2026, driven by expanded production worldwide. This increase is expected to place downward pressure on oil prices, with Brent Crude averaging $62 per barrel in Q4 2025 and dropping further to $52 per barrel in 2026. For comparison, Brent prices averaged $68 in September.
However, the agency flagged China’s oil stockpiling as a key uncertainty. If China continues purchasing oil aggressively for storage, global prices could remain higher than forecast.
Natural Gas Production and Pricing
Alongside crude oil, U.S. dry natural gas production is projected to reach 107 Bcf/d by 2026, up from 103.5 Bcf/d in 2024. Rising output is expected to temper price growth.
At the Henry Hub in Louisiana, natural gas averaged $3 per million Btu in September, with forecasts calling for an increase to $4.10 per million Btu in January 2025. Still, that January forecast is 50 cents lower than previously expected due to higher-than-anticipated production. As of early Wednesday, spot prices were $3.38 per million Btu.
LNG Exports Expanding Rapidly
The U.S. is also poised to expand its role as a global LNG exporter. The EIA projects an additional 5 Bcf/d of LNG export capacity coming online in late 2025 and into 2026, thanks to the ramp-up of the Plaquemines facility in Louisiana and the Corpus Christi plant in Texas.
By 2026, U.S. LNG exports are expected to hit 16 Bcf/d, up from 12 Bcf/d in 2024. This rapid expansion cements the U.S.’s position as a dominant player in global natural gas markets.
Key Takeaway
The United States is setting records in oil and gas production while expanding LNG exports, reshaping global energy markets. With output projected to hold steady through 2026, consumers may see lower oil prices, though Chinese demand and export growth remain critical variables.