Trans and Queer Identification Plummets Among Gen Z, New Report Finds

A new report from the Centre for Heterodox Social Science reveals a dramatic decline in transgender and queer identification among Generation Z — particularly in elite academic settings. Authored by political scientist Eric Kaufmann, the study points to a sharp reversal of identity trends that had been rising for over a decade, suggesting a possible cultural correction or “post-progressive” shift.

Sharp Decline Across Surveys

Kaufmann’s research draws on extensive survey data, including the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) survey of more than 60,000 students in 2025. According to the report, just 3.6% of respondents identified as a gender other than male or female, down from 5.2% in 2024 and 6.8% in 2022 and 2023.

“In other words, the share of trans-identified students has effectively halved in just two years,” Kaufmann noted.

The trend is even more pronounced at prestigious schools. At Andover Phillips Academy, the number of students identifying as neither male nor female dropped from 9.2% in 2023 to 3% in 2025. Similarly, at Brown University, the percentage fell from 5% to 2.6% over the same period.

From Surge to Retreat

Kaufmann observed that from 2010 through 2023, sexual and gender nonconformity rose steadily among young people — but since then, identification as transgender, queer, or bisexual has fallen nearly 10 percentage points. The pattern now shows younger students less likely to identify as BTQ (bisexual, trans, or queer) than their older peers, a reversal from just a few years ago.

“This is a sign that fashions are changing,” Kaufmann explained. “When trans and queer trends were at their peak, freshmen were more likely to be non-conforming than seniors. Now, it’s the reverse.”

Possible Explanations

Kaufmann cautioned against drawing ideological conclusions. His analysis found no major shifts in religion, conservatism, or political beliefs among students to explain the trend.

“What explains the sudden reversal of trans and queer? It’s not because the kids became less woke, more religious, or more conservative,” Kaufmann said on X (formerly Twitter). “Those beliefs remained stable throughout the 2020s.”

Instead, he noted a partial correlation with improving mental health, as rates of anxiety and depression declined after the pandemic. While this psychological improvement coincides with the trend, Kaufmann said it does not fully explain it:
“The decline in anxiety and depression occurred within trans, bisexual, and queer groups as much as among others. So it wasn’t the case that most of those who solved their emotional problems became heterosexual.”

A Fading Cultural Trend?

Kaufmann ultimately characterized the shift as akin to the fading of a fashion or trend, rather than a direct result of ideological or political change.

“It happened largely independently of shifts in political beliefs and social media use, though improved mental health played a role,” he concluded.

The decline in transgender and queer identification among Gen Z marks a stunning reversal of a trend once thought to be permanent — and could signal broader cultural realignments now unfolding quietly across schools and campuses.

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