Fertility Will Fall in Most Nations Over Future Decades
THURSDAY, March 21, 2024 — By 2050, three-quarters of the world’s nations will see fertility rates fall to below replacement levels, meaning their populations will be steadily shrinking, a new study predicts.
And by 2100, almost all countries (97%) are expected to have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, the same report concludes.
This trend will not happen everywhere all at once. Richer countries will be hit first and hardest by falling birth rates, with poorer nations maintaining higher birth rates. That’s according to researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle.
All of this means big shifts in where the world’s babies are being born.
According to the report, 29% of babies were born in sub-Saharan Africa in 2021. But by 2100, over half (54%) of all infants will be born in that region, should current trends persist.
The findings were published March 20 in The Lancet journal.